Where Big Money Goes - Edition 03
AI, Arms & Alliances: U.S. giants lead M&A as sovereign capital reshapes defense and chip flows. VC playbooks are breaking down, while new trade deals anchor the future of capital movement
Welcome to the third edition of Where Big Money Goes—your go-to tracker for major financial moves across the globe.
This series, part of The Denominator, will spotlight the most significant capital flows, covering money movements above $500M across geographies, asset classes, and industries.
Our goal? To identify where the world's largest investors are placing their capital and uncover the sectors, companies, and trends driving today's economy. This monthly publication will highlight key money movements from April 23, 2025 to May 25, 2025.
New Deal and Fund Announcements
TPG buys digital infrastructure investment firm Peppertree for $960M
TPG Inc., a prominent global alternative asset management firm, has announced its acquisition of Peppertree Capital Management, which manages $7.7B in assets. Peppertree specializes in digital infrastructure investments, focusing on wireless communications towers. The transaction is valued at up to $960M and aligns with TPG’s other investments in the digital media and communications sectors.
Invictus Growth Partners closes $574M Fund II
Invictus Growth Partners, a San Mateo-based growth equity firm, closed its second flagship fund, Invictus Growth Fund II, with $574M in total commitments, accelerating its investments in AI applications across critical industries including Manufacturing, Automotive, and Energy.
Cursor triples valuation in months with mega $900M funding round
Anysphere, creator of the AI-powered code editor Cursor, has raised $900M in a Series C round led by Thrive Capital, valuing the company at $9B - up from $2.5B in January 2025. Cursor, an AI-driven integrated development environment, helps developers write and debug code more efficiently. The company reported an impressive annual recurring revenue of ~$200M as of April 2025.
Skechers Goes Private in $9.4B Deal with 3G Capital
Skechers is going private in a $9.4B deal with private equity firm 3G Capital, after months of discussions and an evaluation by Berkshire Hathaway. The move follows Walgreens’ $10B buyout, signalling a broader shift in US retail. These high-profile privatizations underscore a growing trend among retailers to seek refuge from public market volatility amid trade uncertainty and shifting consumer behaviour.
Mega Deal Updates:
Verizon received FCC approval for its $20B acquisition of Frontier Communications.
Capital One completed its $35.3B acquisition of Discover Financial in May 2025, forming the largest U.S. credit card issuer by loan volume.
U.S. led mega deals redefine M&A
OpenAI Acquires Jony Ive’s hardware startup in $6.5B all-stock deal
By bringing in Jony Ive — the visionary behind the iPhone, iMac, and Apple Watch — to lead design, OpenAI is signalling a bold shift toward AI-native consumer hardware, not just software tools. The move comes through a massive $6.5B all-stock deal. Combining Ive’s iconic design sensibility with OpenAI’s intelligence engine could spark the next “iPhone moment”- a generational leap in product design for AI. In the last edition, we covered the mega $40B round, the largest in history that OpenAI closed led by SoftBank.
Public firms take the lead in the recent M&A wave
Nippon–U.S. Steel deal could create global #3 but key details remain under wraps
Nippon Steel’s $14.9B acquisition of U.S. Steel - framed as a partnership to address national security concerns has been months in the making. For Nippon Steel, it’s a strategic expansion beyond a saturated Japanese market and a bid to better compete with Chinese steelmakers. Announced by the U.S. President, the deal is expected to inject ~$14B into the U.S. economy, create thousands of jobs, and keep U.S. Steel’s headquarters in Pittsburgh. However, final terms remain unclear. U.S. Steel shares surged 24.3% post-announcement, with hedge fund Third Point Capital holding 3.6M shares.
Prominent M&A deals across key financial markets
AI led acquisitions have begun among leading private and public players
OpenAI has agreed to acquire Windsurf, an AI-assisted coding tools company, for ~$3B. While the deal is still pending regulatory approval and final process clearances, it is already being touted as one of the most significant AI acquisitions in the developer tooling space—a competitive segment that includes companies like Cursor, which recently raised a major funding round.
Databricks has acquired Neon for $1B - a cloud-native database company known for its open-source Postgres architecture optimized for the cloud. This strategic acquisition strengthens Databricks' data infrastructure enabling deeper integration of transactional and analytical workloads as well as laying the foundation for AI agents.
Palo Alto Networks has agreed to acquire Protect AI, a Seattle-based AI cybersecurity startup, for $650–$700M, with the deal expected to close in Q1 2026. The acquisition will bolster Palo Alto’s Prisma AI Runtime Security platform, strengthening its leadership in AI threat defense.
Venture Capital Shrinks to Survive
In 2025, new VC fund managers have raised only $4.7B, reflecting a tough fundraising environment even as larger, established firms have downsized their funds and struggled to meet targets.
It’s clear that traditional VC is dead — the latest to become an RIA is Lightspeed, following General Catalyst, enabling broader investment strategies across public equities and other assets.
Meanwhile, Andreessen Horowitz and Sequoia have already adopted evergreen fund structures. According to the UBS Global Family Office Report 2025 - allocations to venture capital within alternatives haven’t even made the cut, as limited partners wait for returns and liquidity from prior commitments. IPOs haven’t made a comeback, and companies have chosen to remain private for longer.
The sheen of VC is lost forever in the sands of the ZIRP era.
Strategic Shift: US and Middle East Deepen Ties in AI and Defense
During the Trump 2.0 Middle East tour, the US secured major deals with Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and newcomer Qatar amid rising demand for advanced chips and defense technology.
With Europe increasing military spending due to the Ukraine-Russia conflict, Nvidia and AMD are leading sovereign AI projects in the region, while the US enforces new export controls on China. Boeing and GE Aerospace also stand out as key beneficiaries.
India-UK Free Trade Agreement paves way for stronger economic partnership between 4th and 6th largest economies
In our latest deep dive with The Denominator, we analysed the projected impact of the India-UK Free Trade Agreement, anticipating an annual boost of $3–$4B in Indian exports to the UK over the next 5–7 years. This landmark deal not only strengthens India’s position as a preferred supply chain partner for the UK post-Brexit but also grants UK companies access to India’s top 10% consumer market - a significant opportunity for growth.
That’s it for the third edition of Where Big Money Goes—your monthly guide to the biggest money flows across geographies, asset classes, and industries. Subscribe here for the latest editions of The Denominator.
Very helpful! Could just structure this into insight vs opinion/who said what, include some critical notes from X on the subject matter etc and this can become very holistic and comprehensive. All the best.